ARMLS Pending Phoenix Home Price Index

Posted by Doug Young on Monday, March 11th, 2013 at 11:42am.

Share this post:

The ARMS Phoenix Pending Home Price Index is a metric unique to ARMLS, since no other third party source has access to pending data. The PPI predicts pricing 30 days into the future based on pending properties inside MLS. Last month the PPI forecast the median sales price at $155,000, missing the actual median sales price of $160,000 by 3.23%. The average sales price pre-dicted for February was $206,300, falling short of the actual average of $216,500 by 4.92%.

For March, STAT predicts a median sales price of $163,000, and an average sales price of $214,600. Many Brokers and Agents proactively factor pricing predictions into their busi-ness and market strategies as a complement to sold pricing data which trails the market.

PPI SUPPLEMENT
The PPI Supplement focuses on the makeup of newly pended Phoenix area properties added to the Pending pool each month over a rolling four months. Unit declines continue in properties $150,000 and under. More telling is a comparison with PPI Supplement data from March 2012 STAT, which shows a definite shift in units as percent of total new pendings in price ranges $450,000 and below. The $50,000 and under range, which a year ago accounted for 8.28% of total new Pend-ings, now accounts for only 3.49%. Similarly over a year’s time, $50,001 to $100,000 changed from 25.13% in 2012 to 12.79%; conversely, $100,001 to $150,000 rose from 15.13% to the current 25.28%. In the range from $150,001 to $200,000, new Pendings made up 8.42% of the total a year ago, but by March 2013 accounted for 20.24%. Similar shifts, spurred by dwindling inventory at the lower ranges to more Pendings in the next higher ranges, are seen in ranges up to $450,000.

PPI SUPPLEMENT - $/SQ FT
The PPI Supplement - $/SQ FT report examines incremental gains or losses over a rolling four months in the price per square foot of newly pended properties added to the Pending pool each month. No significant trending is detected over the past four months. Comparison of the $/SQ FT Supplement data with January 2012, shows only a modest year-over-year increase of $3/SQ FT for properties <= $50,000, but in all ranges from $50,001 through $450,000, substantial gains ranging from $7-13/SQ FT were recorded.

Check out the complete report here.  A Phoenix area Realtor is available to answer any home buying questions you may have.

Leave a Comment