THE ARMLS PENDING PRICE INDEX™ - February 7, 2013

The ARMLS Pending Price Index is a metric unique to ARMLS which uses pending sales data inside MLS to forecast pricing over the next 30 days. In December, PPI predicted January’s median sales price to be $154,500, missing the actual figure of $154,900 by 0.26%. Last month, PPI predicted the average sales price to land at $205,300, falling short of the actual average price of $208,400 by 1.52%.  With both numbers coming in higher than forecasted, that shows as a positive sign for trending price action on Phoenix area home prices.
This month PPI forecasts the median sales price in February to be $155,000, and the average sales price $206,300, which is nearly flat to last months numbers.

With regards to price/sq. ft., the report examines incremental gains or losses over a rolling four months in the price per square foot of newly pended properties added to the Pending pool each month. No significant trending is detected over the past four months. Comparison of the price/sq. ft. supplement data with January 2012, shows only a modest year-over-year increase of $3/sq. ft. for properties <= $50,000, but in all ranges from $50,001 through $450,000, substantial gains ranging from $7-13/SQ FT were recorded.  Based on this it would appear that Phoenix house price recovery is not only occuring at the lower price points, but is now pushing into the higher price points as well.

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